Our Dad Oscar Predictions For 2019
The Academy Awards are just a few weeks away, and despite some snubs, it’s shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable and wild Oscars ceremony in years. So who will take away the biggest prizes of the night? We have no idea, but we’re going to boldly and brazenly predict the winners anyway, because if anyone’s going to blindly guess the results of something they have no way of knowing with impossible confidence, it’s gonna be a dad.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
The nominees are…
- Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
- Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
- Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
- Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
- Sam Rockwell, “Vice”
And the winner is…
Mahershala Ali
This might be the closest award to a “lock” on the list. Ali is an incredible actor whose work in Green Book has already garnered a slew of awards. If he doesn’t win his second Oscar come February 24, expect audible gasps from the audience.
That isn’t to say that we’d be upset if any of the other actors won. Sam Rockwell was great in Vice, and as much as it’s a bit odd to see Kylo Ren nominated for an Oscar, Adam Driver’s performance in Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman was pitch perfect. Sam Elliott has deserved an Oscar ever since Road House. And Richard E. Grant is an actor that we are sure people have heard of who was in a film that we are sure people have seen.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
The nominees are…
- Amy Adams, “Vice”
- Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
- Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
- Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
- Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”
And the winner is…
Regina King
This category is pretty tricky, but King seems most likely to pull away with it for her powerful performance in If Beale Street Could Talk, a movie that many feel is criminally underrepresented at the Oscars this year. Both Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz were deliriously fun in their roles in The Favourite, but that’s Olivia Coleman’s movie, and these two former Oscar winners are just likely to split votes from each other.
Amy Adams is due, but we don’t think that Vice is the movie where this six-time nominee gets rewarded. If King doesn’t end up winning, we actually wouldn’t be surprised to see Marina de Tavira win for Roma. Her nomination was a surprise, and a win would be even more surprising, but if the Academy decides to pile its support behind the Netflix auteur film, Tavira could benefit. But we don’t anticipate that happening.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
The nominees are…
- Christian Bale, “Vice”
- Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
- Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
- Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
- Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
And the winner is…
Rami Malek
Of the four other actors on this list, only Christian Bale has won an Oscar previously (for his role in The Fighter in 2010), but between his four nominations, Mortensen’s three previous nods, Dafoe’s four nominations and poor Bradley Cooper’s seven nominations without a win, we’re banking that first-time nominee Malek takes home the trophy for his portrayal of Queen’s Freddie Mercury.
Given the current controversy surrounding Bohemian Rhapsody, this award seems like a easy way to toss some love to the film without giving it too much love. Besides, Rami Malek had to film that whole movie with prosthetic teeth. Pretty daring stuff.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
The nominees are…
- Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
- Glenn Close, “The Wife”
- Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
- Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
- Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
And the winner is…
Glenn Close
This one is neck-and-neck between Close and Coleman, and honestly if they gave it to Coleman it would be both very deserved and proof that the Academy very strongly despises Glenn Close. Close was first nominated for an Oscar in 1983, and in the ensuing 36 years has been nominated a total of seven times with zero wins to show for it. She’s been winning awards left and right for her portrayal as the spouse of a Nobel Prize winner (there’s more to it than that, obviously) and we expect her to finally be able to add an Academy Award to her mantle.
That is unless the Academy hates her, then it goes to Coleman.
Best Director
The nominees are…
- Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
- Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
- Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”
- Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
- Adam McKay, “Vice”
And the winner is…
Spike Lee
Lately, the Academy has almost seemed to make a point of not awarding the Best Picture and Best Director Oscars to the same movies. We don’t know how it can be so common for the worse movie to be better directed, but who knows. While last year saw Shape of Water win both awards, we don’t see that happening again this year.
Given all the buzz around Roma, that seems to be the clear favorite to win it all (spoiler alert for the next paragraph in this article) and if it does indeed go down like that, we’re thinking the voters will see that Cuarón has already won a Best Director award (for Gravity) while Lee has been one of the most influential filmmakers of his generation, and has never won. So our money is on BlackKklansman being the final film to push him over the edge and allow us to say “Spike Lee, Oscar-winner.”
Which leaves us with…
Best Motion Picture
The nominees are…
- “Black Panther”
- “BlacKkKlansman”
- “Bohemian Rhapsody”
- “The Favourite”
- “Green Book”
- “Roma”
- “A Star Is Born”
- “Vice”
And the winner is…
Roma
Roma has all the momentum going for it, and while we could see Green Book or Bohemian Rhapsody sneak in, and we’d love to see Black Panther get it, at this point our money is on Cuarón’s semi-autobiographical black-and-white film.
Here’s the thing about Roma though, as this is Classic Dad and we must provide a dad take on it. Dads do not like Roma. They don’t dislike it, but they shrug it off. Dads think it is over-hyped and just okay, and are going to roll their eyes when it ends up winning because they’d much rather see it go to A Star Is Born. But we’re not here to tell you to rank the movies as far as dads would like them (number 1 is either A Star Is Born, Black Panther or Bohemian Rhapsody), we’re here to tell you what we think will win.
And we think Roma will win. But if Black Panther won that would be kind of amazing.
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