The Science Behind Dad’s Superstitious Sport Watching Habits

January 15, 2017

You’ve seen it enough times that it’s probably rubbed off on you a little bit: your dad hopping on one foot during a field goal attempt, or refusing to watch a playoff game in the 9th inning, or screaming at you to get out of his lucky chair because “you’re going to ruin it.”

Sports superstitions.

Everyone has their own, but dads have dozens of them. Every dad has a spot where he tries to watch every game. Every dad has actively not watched a game convinced that him watching is what was bringing them bad luck.

But there is a reason why all dads are superstitious about sports, and it’s the same reason why you’re superstitious about certain things, and it’s the same reason why slot machines work. And that reason is confirmation bias.

Confirmation bias is something that we all have.

Basically, if we make an assumption, and encounter information that backs up our assumption, we’ll give it significantly more weight than if we encountered information that disproves our theory.

It’s sort of like how if you date someone who you really like, but who has absolutely nothing in common with you, you can convince yourself that you two are so “in sync” because you both like pizza and saw the movie Anchorman in theaters.

How does confirmation bias make your dad superstitious about sports?

Well, first it requires your dad wanting to feel like he has an impact on his favorite team. He knows that’s not the case, but having an emotional investment with a team throughout your life ultimately leads to this view, at least subconsciously.

From there, it’s just a matter of remembering where you were when something good happened, and then trying to replicate that. If dad’s team won while he was sitting in a chair, then that chair must be lucky. If they lose while sitting in the lucky chair, it’s not that the chair isn’t lucky, it’s that he wasn’t sitting in it the right way.

And thus, you have confirmation bias.

In a controlled study with pigeons, scientists would give a group of the birds treats at completely random times. Eventually, the birds would start holding up a single leg, or moving in a particular manner, under the assumption that it was that action that led to them being rewarded, even though it was random. And while your dad would hate to be compared to a pigeon (or “rats of the sky” as he calls them) that is exactly what is happening when your dad brings superstitions to his sports team.

So the next time you see your dad move to the smaller TV in the hopes that his team makes their Hail Mary pass, don’t try to tell him it won’t have any effect on the outcome. He’s already biased to think he will.